Today’s Links
Articles:
University of California Santa Cruz – Political parties use gerrymandering to counteract shifting voter preferences in key battleground states
MIT Press – UC Santa Cruz Study (requires sign-up) – The Targeting and Impact of Partisan Gerrymandering: Evidence from a Legislative Discontinuity
FiveThirtyEight.com – What Redistricting Looks Like in Every State
Groups Taking Action:
Common Cause, League of Women Voters People Powered Fair Maps, Fair Vote
You’re listening to the American Democracy Minute, keeping YOUR government by and for the people.
We reported recently on the use of advanced mathematical models for proving gerrymandering to the courts. Now, researchers are confirming what democracy advocates have long suspected: Gerrymandering is being used as a tool keep political power in the face of a changing tide of demographics.
Research at University of California Santa Cruz is using statistical modeling called “bunching tests” to analyze gerrymandering efforts in swing states. They’ve found that political parties are answering the loss of a Congressional seat in prior elections with stepped up gerrymandering to retake the seat in the future.
Examination of election cycles from 1970 to 2010 suggests that whichever party controls the redistricting process in the state legislature can gerrymander the party to an 11 percentage point increase in its probability of winning a U.S. House race in the next election.
Other trends include more severe gerrymandering to create longer-lasting control, and a 15% higher likelihood of racial gerrymandering by conservative legislatures.
In a statement about the research, Professor Ajay Shenoy said, “. . . Our findings suggest that parties seek control of redistricting in places where the electorate is turning against them, which is, in some ways, more concerning because it indicates that redistricting is being used to actively thwart the popular will.”
Links to articles and groups taking action are at AmericanDemocracyMinute.org.
Granny D said Democracy is not something we HAVE it’s something we DO!
For the American Democracy Minute, I’m Brian Beihl